One study found evidence that, while the predictive value of the MCAT on USMLE Step 1 and Step 3 has remained stable, the MCAT's predictive value for USMLE Step 2 decreased with each new MCAT version over the course of 36 matriculating classes at the Jefferson Medical College ( 7). Some research, on the other hand, indicates that the predictive value of MCAT scores on USMLE scores may not be consistent and depends on several factors. ( 10) also found that USMLE Step 1 scores were differentially correlated with individual components of the MCAT ( r=0.491 for PS, r=0.553 for BS, and r=0.397 for VR). The same analysis found that, of the MCAT components, the Biological Science (BS) and Physical Science (PS) components were most predictive, and Verbal Reasoning (VR) and Writing Sample (WS) component scores contributed little to predictive accuracy. Preliminary analyses of the MCAT version released in 1991 (the version under analysis in this study) found that the MCAT exam accounted for a significant portion of the variance in USMLE Step 1 scores, and that including undergraduate information, such as GPA and undergraduate institution selectivity, added little to the model ( 9). Researchers at the Jefferson Medical College found that MCAT scores were moderately correlated with both medical school performance and USMLE scores in a meta-analysis of the literature ( 7), concluding that the MCAT composite score had strong predictive validity for USMLE Step 1 and medium predictive validity for USMLE Step 2 ( 8). In their study, MCAT scores correlated more strongly with Step 2 scores than did undergraduate GPA ( r=0.287, p=0.000) and science GPA ( r=0.255, p=0.002). Ogunyemi and Taylor-Harris ( 6) found a significant positive correlation between MCAT scores and USMLE Step 2 scores ( r=0.524, p=0.000). Step 2 CK further assesses health promotion and disease prevention and incorporates the principles of clinical sciences and basic patient-centered skills for safe practices of medicine ( 5).Ī substantial body of literature supports the predictive value of MCAT scores on USMLE scores. Step 1 assesses whether medical students understand and are able to apply important concepts of basic science to medical practice, with special emphasis on principles of underlying modes of therapy, health, and disease. Together, Step 1 and Step 2 CK assess a physician's ability to apply knowledge and concepts to provide safe and effective patient care. Typically, for medical students receiving training at LCME-accredited institutions in the US and Canada, students take Step 1 of the USMLE at the end of the second year of medical school, Step 2 Clinical Knowledge (CK) and Clinical Skills (CS) in the fourth year of medical school, and Step 3 after medical school. The USMLE is a three-step examination sponsored by the Federation of State Medical Boards and the National Board of Medical Examiners ® required for physician licensure for all physicians, regardless of training location, to practice in the United States. One outcome that is frequently used to measure medical student success is the student's score on the U.S.

With the release of a new version of the MCAT in 2015, it has become increasingly important to understand the predictive value of the MCAT on student success. The MCAT can also serve as a useful leveling factor when evaluating applicants from undergraduate institutions of differing selectivity ( 4). Research supports the continued use of the MCAT in admissions decisions, having found the MCAT to be more consistently valuable for predicting measures of medical school success than other frequently-considered factors such as grade point average (GPA) ( 3). Due to its reputation as a relatively objective and standardized measure of preparation for medical school, the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT), a multi-component standardized exam, remains one of the most influential components of an application to medical school. While the Association of American Medical Colleges is advocating for a holistic approach to admissions decisions ( 1), challenges remain when it comes to assessing personal qualities for admissions decisions ( 2), including difficulties selecting and defining the qualities to select for, cost-effectiveness in measurement, and the inherent subjectivity of evaluating such qualities.

Medical school admissions committees have long debated how best to select students for their programs.

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